Post by account_disabled on Dec 30, 2023 10:38:27 GMT
Mr. Yanyong Thaicharoen, Deputy General Manager The chief executive of Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) of Siam Commercial Bank revealed that EIC has lowered its forecast for the Thai economy in 2019 to grow to 2.8% from the original estimate of 3% due to the trade war that is still protracted. Setting up tariffs between China and the United States Resulting in a more widespread effect in many countries. Affecting the world economy, it is likely to continue to slow down. When combined with the strengthening of the baht, the export sector contracted even more to minus 2.5% from the previous 2% contraction, while the tourism sector Although the number of tourists is maintained at 40.1 million, the average tourist spending per capita has been revised down following the strengthening of the baht. From the beginning of the year to the present, the baht has strengthened by 7.7%. Domestic demand side Signs of a slowdown in private spending are becoming clearer. In particular, housing sales in the real estate sector and car sales contracted. This is in line with the weakening economic situation.
reflected in contraction in employment, especially in the industrial sector. For 2020, EIC expects the Thai economy to expand by 2.8% in line with the global economic trend that will continue to slow down and household debt that will put pressure on purchasing power in the country. As for Thai exports, they will recover slowly, expanding by 0.2% in 2020. At the same time, be careful of the risk of an economic recession WhatsApp Number List Especially countries whose economies rely heavily on international trade, such as Germany, Hong Kong, and Singapore, have caused central banks around the world to return to accommodative monetary policy. EIC maintains its view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has an opportunity. Reduce interest rates one more time in the 4th quarter of 2019 from the current 1.50% to 1.25%, which is the lowest level in history, and will maintain interest rates throughout 2020. As for the baht, it will still be under pressure to appreciate. This is because Thailand's current account balance is in a high surplus. The trend of reducing policy interest rates of central banks in the region may be more effective than Thailand's.
The policy interest rate is already quite low. as well as capital flows that come in from time to time as the baht is viewed as a safe currency in the region. This will cause the value of the baht to move in the range of 30-31 baht per US dollar during 2020. Risk factors for the Thai economy in the next period come from both internal and external sources. The trade war remains an important risk that could become more severe and may cause Thai exports and tourism to be affected more than expected. This will cause the Thai economy in 2020 to slow down more than expected. other external factors What needs to be watched are geopolitical conflicts such as Brexit and protests in Hong Kong. and the conflict between Japan and South Korea That may cause the world economy to slow down further and may cause fluctuations in the world currency market. Meanwhile, domestic risks come from increased financial fragility in both the household sector and the SME business sector, as reflected by the level of bad debts (NPL) in both consumer loans and SME business loans that tend to increase. from the cumulative effect of the increasing debt burden Income that slows down according to the economic situation and structural changes that make business sales and household incomes more likely to be concentrated. In addition, there are delays in preparing the budget. Including the efficiency of government disbursement. It is also another important internal risk factor that affects economic growth in the future.
reflected in contraction in employment, especially in the industrial sector. For 2020, EIC expects the Thai economy to expand by 2.8% in line with the global economic trend that will continue to slow down and household debt that will put pressure on purchasing power in the country. As for Thai exports, they will recover slowly, expanding by 0.2% in 2020. At the same time, be careful of the risk of an economic recession WhatsApp Number List Especially countries whose economies rely heavily on international trade, such as Germany, Hong Kong, and Singapore, have caused central banks around the world to return to accommodative monetary policy. EIC maintains its view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has an opportunity. Reduce interest rates one more time in the 4th quarter of 2019 from the current 1.50% to 1.25%, which is the lowest level in history, and will maintain interest rates throughout 2020. As for the baht, it will still be under pressure to appreciate. This is because Thailand's current account balance is in a high surplus. The trend of reducing policy interest rates of central banks in the region may be more effective than Thailand's.
The policy interest rate is already quite low. as well as capital flows that come in from time to time as the baht is viewed as a safe currency in the region. This will cause the value of the baht to move in the range of 30-31 baht per US dollar during 2020. Risk factors for the Thai economy in the next period come from both internal and external sources. The trade war remains an important risk that could become more severe and may cause Thai exports and tourism to be affected more than expected. This will cause the Thai economy in 2020 to slow down more than expected. other external factors What needs to be watched are geopolitical conflicts such as Brexit and protests in Hong Kong. and the conflict between Japan and South Korea That may cause the world economy to slow down further and may cause fluctuations in the world currency market. Meanwhile, domestic risks come from increased financial fragility in both the household sector and the SME business sector, as reflected by the level of bad debts (NPL) in both consumer loans and SME business loans that tend to increase. from the cumulative effect of the increasing debt burden Income that slows down according to the economic situation and structural changes that make business sales and household incomes more likely to be concentrated. In addition, there are delays in preparing the budget. Including the efficiency of government disbursement. It is also another important internal risk factor that affects economic growth in the future.